Mystery Booster Commander forecast

Last updated Oct 25, 2026 · Scryfall data of Oct 25, 2026 · locked Oct 12, 2026

Predicted Commander popularity for cards 1–60 of Mystery Booster Commander Edition, which become Commander-legal November 13, 2026. Playtest and acorn-stamped cards are excluded.

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On past sets this model's scores had a 0.52 rank correlation with the actual popularity for commanders and 0.62 for all cards (1 is a perfect order, 0 is no relation).

Method

Manayard parses mechanics from known Commander legal cardsThis part is changing frequently but currently includes most mechanics, mana cost, colors, types, current popularity

Text modelWords and phrases learned from older cards

Pairwise modelLearns which of two same-release cards got played more, using facts from Manayard's card parser.

Blended average

Apply to new set

For more details see How the tests were run

Power

Power is a card's expected strength in a game, learned from older cards and separate from popularity. Three models see only what is known when a card is revealed: its rules text, type, mana value, colours and a parsed-effect score (lib/card_power.js).

Two read 17lands limited win rates of cards printed before the set; the third reads Cube Cobra draft Elo, which is how often drafters pick a card over others. A cheap language model (Haiku) also rates each card from its text alone, 0 to 10. The percentile from the three models and the percentile of that rating are averaged, so 0.50 is a typical older card.

Trained before 2024 and tested on 3,909 cards from 2024 on, the three models correlated 0.36 with win rate (mana value alone: −0.03), and adding the language model's rating raised it to 0.40 on a 500-card sample. The panel under a card lists the rules-text terms that moved the text model most.

Results

Each category is ranked separately. Model scores are percentiles among older cards, from 0 to 1. Power is separate from popularity (see Method). Select the Blend or Power heading to sort. Select a card to see its image and what raised or lowered its scores.

Commander candidates 59 cards

#	Card	Set			Text model	Pairwise model
1	Maular, the Next Evolution	MBC	0.99	0.83	0.99	0.99
2	Balefang the Unslayable	MBC	0.97	0.82	0.96	0.98
3	Homer, the Hermit	MBC	0.97	0.28	0.96	0.98
4	Olag and Miau, New Friends	MBC	0.97	0.51	0.96	0.98
5	Davvol, Evincar of Rath	MBC	0.97	0.28	0.98	0.96
6	Meatsqueak, Hoard Lord	MBC	0.96	0.60	0.95	0.98
7	Chief Magistrate of Mercadia	MBC	0.96	0.94	0.93	0.99
8	Flitwing, Lyev Detective	MBC	0.96	0.35	0.95	0.97
9	Tresserhorn's Lord, Returned	MBC	0.95	0.41	0.95	0.96
10	Tolabow, Loch Rascal	MBC	0.95	0.66	0.98	0.93
11	The Unluckiest Planeswalker	MBC	0.95	0.46	0.95	0.95
12	Seluma, Light of Aysen	MBC	0.95	0.76	0.95	0.95
13	Dyfed, the Guiding Hand	MBC	0.95	0.55	0.95	0.95
14	Sifa Grent	MBC	0.94	0.78	0.94	0.94
15	Grizzlegom, Hurloon Hero	MBC	0.94	0.83	0.92	0.96
16	Selenia, the Cursed Heart	MBC	0.94	0.66	0.92	0.96
17	The Everforger	MBC	0.93	0.36	0.95	0.92
18	Miss Highwater	MBC	0.93	0.78	0.91	0.94
19	Venser, Visionary Traveler	MBC	0.92	0.88	0.93	0.91
20	Boss Uramon, Shadow's Reach	MBC	0.92	0.62	0.86	0.98
21	The Weaver King	MBC	0.92	0.74	0.89	0.95
22	Grandmother Goby	MBC	0.92	0.65	0.90	0.94
23	Nephilim Epochal	MBC	0.91	0.57	0.89	0.93
24	Blor the Impervious	MBC	0.91	0.57	0.91	0.91
25	Uugguu, the Omniplasm	MBC	0.89	0.28	0.90	0.88
26	Ashaya's Enduring Bond	MBC	0.88	0.47	0.93	0.84
27	Valko Indorian	MBC	0.87	0.34	0.93	0.82
28	Worzel, the Protector	MBC	0.87	0.91	0.82	0.91
29	Yume, Chronicler of Valor	MBC	0.86	0.36	0.90	0.82
30	Ekthi, Contaminator Priest	MBC	0.86	0.56	0.85	0.86
31	Autumn Willow, Harmony	MBC	0.85	0.67	0.83	0.87
32	Massimo, the Magician	MBC	0.85	0.40	0.85	0.85
33	Feroz, Ulgrotha's Warden	MBC	0.85	0.88	0.80	0.90
34	Sahir, Visitor in Darkness	MBC	0.85	0.69	0.88	0.81
35	Rikala, Homarid King	MBC	0.85	0.58	0.82	0.87
36	Jabs, Mistress of Mockery	MBC	0.84	0.21	0.93	0.76
37	The Madcap Jester	MBC	0.84	0.70	0.91	0.77
38	Olinda the Oblivious	MBC	0.84	0.74	0.87	0.81
39	Gustha Ebbasdotter	MBC	0.83	0.51	0.78	0.87
40	Lyna, Veil of Vengeance	MBC	0.83	0.41	0.72	0.93
41	Zagorka, Mother of Sanctum	MBC	0.82	0.45	0.81	0.83
42	Chira, All In	MBC	0.80	0.28	0.90	0.70
43	Itazura, Lingering Wick	MBC	0.78	0.70	0.78	0.78
44	Grakk the Pacifist	MBC	0.76	0.38	0.82	0.71
45	Glava, Five-Advents Mage	MBC	0.74	0.25	0.79	0.70
46	Thomil, the Destroyer	MBC	0.74	0.94	0.74	0.73
47	Arzakon	MBC	0.72	0.80	0.68	0.76
48	Greensleeves	MBC	0.72	0.90	0.72	0.71
49	Tsagan, Raider Warlord	MBC	0.71	0.43	0.85	0.57
50	The Muckslinger Gang	MBC	0.71	0.67	0.63	0.78
51	Kuroki, Thief of Talents	MBC	0.68	0.93	0.72	0.65
52	Sash and Waistcoat, Unmen	MBC	0.68	0.65	0.66	0.69
53	Whtz, the Bibliophile	MBC	0.64	0.47	0.65	0.64
54	Joven and Chandler	MBC	0.63	0.70	0.71	0.56
55	Jandor, Fortuned Traveler	MBC	0.62	0.57	0.77	0.47
56	Elda, Conjurer of Spectacle	MBC	0.59	0.25	0.63	0.55
57	Nivea, Beloved Battlemage	MBC	0.51	0.69	0.66	0.36
58	Matoc, Lavamancer	MBC	0.46	0.83	0.54	0.37
59	Istvan, Butcher of Eln	MBC	0.42	0.53	0.48	0.37

Other spells 1 card

#	Card	Set			Text model	Pairwise model	Bookmark
1	Dragon's Smile	MBC	0.98	0.35	0.96	0.99

Limits

27 of 60 cards still contain text the parser cannot fully interpret. Popularity scores predict how often a card is played, not how strong it is, and are not probabilities. Power is learned from limited win rates and draft picks, so it measures strength in limited play, not in Commander, and ignores synergy with a specific deck. On 3,909 cards from 2024 on, the models had a 0.36 rank correlation with win rate (0.40 with the language-model rating, on 500 cards); most of the spread in win rate is not predictable from card text. Popularity scores will be graded against real popularity after release.

Mystery Booster Commander forecast

Method

Power

Results

Commander candidates 59 cards

Text model 0.99

Pairwise model 0.99

Power 0.83

Text model 0.96

Pairwise model 0.98

Power 0.82

Text model 0.96

Pairwise model 0.98

Power 0.28

Text model 0.96

Pairwise model 0.98

Power 0.51

Text model 0.98

Pairwise model 0.96

Power 0.28

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.98

Power 0.60

Text model 0.93

Pairwise model 0.99

Power 0.94

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.97

Power 0.35

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.96

Power 0.41

Text model 0.98

Pairwise model 0.93

Power 0.66

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.95

Power 0.46

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.95

Power 0.76

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.95

Power 0.55

Text model 0.94

Pairwise model 0.94

Power 0.78

Text model 0.92

Pairwise model 0.96

Power 0.83

Text model 0.92

Pairwise model 0.96

Power 0.66

Text model 0.95

Pairwise model 0.92

Power 0.36

Text model 0.91

Pairwise model 0.94

Power 0.78

Text model 0.93

Pairwise model 0.91

Power 0.88

Text model 0.86

Pairwise model 0.98

Power 0.62

Text model 0.89

Pairwise model 0.95

Power 0.74

Text model 0.90

Pairwise model 0.94

Power 0.65

Text model 0.89

Pairwise model 0.93

Power 0.57

Text model 0.91

Pairwise model 0.91

Power 0.57

Text model 0.90

Pairwise model 0.88

Power 0.28